Independent and Joint Associations of Long-Term Ambient Meteorological Exposures and Socioeconomic Deprivation with Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events: A Prospective Cohort Study
In brief
UK Biobank links socioeconomic deprivation to 39% higher cardiovascular event risk
Among 469,347 UK Biobank participants followed for a median 13.7 years, the most deprived group had 39% higher risk of major cardiovascular events. High humidity was linked to 10% higher risk and the highest temperature category to 13% lower risk, but weather associations did not hold in some sensitivity analyses; the deprivation gradient was more consistent, though the study cannot show that changing exposures would prevent events.
- Journal
- Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987) (Q1)
- Published
- 19 October 2026
- Study design
- Prospective / inception cohort
- Evidence level
- Level 2, Moderate (CEBM 2b)
- Authors
- Jinqun Cheng, Ge Chen, Yanhui Gao, Gregory Y H Lip, Xuejiao Chen, Junguo Zhang
- PMID
- 42896667
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.envpol.2026.129375
Why clinicians should know about it
- Picked for Epidemiology (paper of the day, 21 October 2026): Prospective cohort linking meteorology, deprivation, and cardiovascular events
Abstract
Although acute meteorological events are recognized cardiovascular hazards, the combined cardiovascular impacts of long-term meteorological exposures and socioeconomic deprivation remain poorly characterized. Among 469,347 UK Biobank participants, we evaluated independent and interactive associations of 1-year average ambient temperature, relative humidity, and the Townsend deprivation index (TDI) with incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and cardiovascular death. Over median 13.7-year follow-up, 31,626 MACE, 12,565 strokes, 17,062 MIs, and 7,161 cardiovascular deaths occurred. In Cox models, the highest versus lowest temperature category was associated with lower MACE risk (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84-0.91), whereas high humidity (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.14) and high deprivation (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.34-1.44) were independently associated with elevated risk. Under a counterfactual assigning the least deprived category's risk to both more deprived categories, 11.75% (95% CI, 9.68-13.77%) of incident MACE and 17.15% (12.68-21.39%) of cardiovascular deaths over 10 years would be attributable to deprivation (total-effect specification, omitting smoking, body mass index, hypertension and diabetes; fully adjusted, 6.67% and 11.09%). Temperature and humidity showed multiplicative interactions with TDI: versus the joint low-risk reference, low temperature with high deprivation had HR 1.55 (95% CI, 1.40-1.71) for MACE and high humidity with high deprivation HR 1.51 (1.34-1.71); additive interactions were significant only at intermediate temperature or intermediate humidity (RERI, 0.20 and 0.16). The deprivation gradient was stable in every sensitivity analysis; the temperature association did not persist within assessment centres, nor the humidity association under a time-varying specification, although both persisted across exposure windows and air-pollution adjustment. These findings indicate that long-term lower temperatures and higher humidity, together with socioeconomic deprivation, are independently and jointly associated with elevated cardiovascular risk, underscoring the need for integrated climate and social welfare policies to mitigate health disparities in vulnerable populations.
Abstract as published, via PubMed.
For healthcare professionals. The summary is generated by AI from the published abstract, and the evidence level is assigned automatically from the study design on the Oxford CEBM hierarchy. Neither is medical advice. Read the full paper before changing practice.